Brexit: Why It Has Been a Total Disaster for the UK

The 2016 referendum that led to the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union was framed by its proponents as a path to national renewal, economic independence, and restored sovereignty. Nearly a decade later, the evidence is overwhelming: Brexit has been a disaster for the UK’s economy, society, and international standing. This article examines the multifaceted consequences of Brexit, drawing on recent economic data, political analysis, and social impacts to make the case that the UK’s departure from the EU has been deeply damaging on almost every front.

Economic Fallout: Growth, Trade, and Investment

Collapse in Trade and Investment

Brexit’s most immediate and measurable impact has been on trade. Since leaving the EU’s single market and customs union, UK exports to the EU have dropped sharply. From 2021 to 2023, UK exports to the EU fell by 27%, while imports from the EU declined by 32%712. This is not a temporary dip but a structural decline, with the range of goods exported also shrinking dramatically—1,645 fewer product categories were shipped to each EU nation12. The hardest-hit sectors include agriculture, clothing, and wood manufacturing, with some sub-sectors seeing export values fall by more than 50%12.

The Brexit deal’s introduction of customs checks, rules of origin requirements, and regulatory divergence has permanently diminished trade efficiency, making the UK less competitive internationally10. These new barriers have made it unviable for many small and medium-sized British businesses to export to Europe at all612.

Investment has also suffered. Uncertainty around Brexit reduced business investment by approximately 6 percentage points and caused a 1.5 percentage point drop in employment1. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have declined, as international firms relocate operations to maintain access to the EU market19. London, once Europe’s financial hub, has lost thousands of jobs in banking and financial services, with estimates suggesting up to 388,000 fewer jobs in financial services nationwide by 2023 compared to a scenario where Brexit never happened11.

GDP and Household Income Losses

The economic costs are staggering. By 2023, the UK’s real Gross Value Added (GVA)—a key measure of economic output—was approximately £140 billion lower than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU, a drop of 6%11. Projections suggest that by 2035, the UK’s GVA will be about 10% lower, with 3 million fewer jobs than if Brexit had not occurred211. The average Briton is nearly £2,000 worse off, while the average Londoner is nearly £3,400 worse off as a direct result of Brexit11.

Long-term forecasts are equally grim. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates that by 2035, Brexit will have reduced UK GDP by 5–6%, or about £2,300 per capita8. The UK government’s own analysis, leaked in 2018, predicted GDP losses ranging from 2% to 8% over 15 years, depending on the exit scenario1.

Cost of Living and Inflation

Brexit has also exacerbated the UK’s cost-of-living crisis. Increased trade barriers have driven up the cost of imports, particularly food. City Hall analysis shows that 30% of the increase in food prices between December 2019 and March 2023 is attributable to Brexit, adding an average of £210 to household food bills over two years and costing UK consumers a total of £5.8 billion11. Inflation spiked in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, costing the average household £404 in 2017 alone1.

Social Impacts: Inequality, Rights, and Everyday Life

Rising Inequality and Social Strain

Brexit’s economic fallout has not been evenly distributed. The hardest-hit are those with the fewest resources: low-income households, precarious workers, and regions already struggling with deindustrialization45. Job losses have been concentrated in sectors and regions that could least afford them, deepening existing inequalities.

The loss of EU rights and protections has also disproportionately affected vulnerable groups. Many social rights—such as the European Health Insurance Card, the EU Blue Badge for disabled parking, and equal rights to social security—are no longer guaranteed4. The discontinuation of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights leaves gaps in anti-discrimination protections, impacting minorities and marginalized communities4.

Impact on Daily Life

Brexit has introduced new frictions into daily life. Freedom of movement is gone, affecting everyone from NHS doctors to seasonal agricultural workers, and making it harder for UK citizens to live, work, or study in the EU9. Air travel between the UK and EU is more restricted, tourism is down, and the import and export of essential goods have become more complicated and expensive9. These disruptions have a direct impact on families, businesses, and communities across the UK.

Political Consequences: Division and Decline

A Divided Nation

The Brexit referendum exposed and deepened profound divisions in British society—generational, geographical, and class-based5. The “leave” vote was strongest in older, less-educated, and economically disadvantaged areas, while younger, more educated, and urban populations overwhelmingly preferred to remain53. These divisions have persisted, fueling political polarization and undermining social cohesion.

Threats to the Union

Brexit has reignited separatist sentiment in Scotland, where the majority voted to remain in the EU. The economic and political fallout has strengthened calls for Scottish independence, raising the real possibility that Brexit could ultimately lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom5. Northern Ireland, too, faces renewed tensions, as the post-Brexit trade border in the Irish Sea has complicated its relationship with both the rest of the UK and the Republic of Ireland.

Loss of Influence and Global Standing

Politically, Brexit has relegated the UK to the sidelines of European decision-making. No longer able to shape EU policy, Britain now finds itself subject to rules it cannot influence, diminishing its global clout5. The UK’s departure has also weakened the EU, but the bloc has largely pulled together in response, leaving Britain isolated.

Structural and Long-Term Damage

Permanent Productivity Decline

Unlike temporary shocks such as financial crises or pandemics, Brexit is a self-imposed, permanent structural change. It has introduced lasting barriers to trade, restricted the flow of talent and capital, and imposed new costs on businesses and consumers10. The result is a persistent drag on productivity—a problem that had already plagued the UK since the 2008 financial crisis, but which Brexit has made worse10.

Diminished Investment and Innovation

The uncertainty and complexity of the post-Brexit environment have discouraged investment and innovation. Businesses face higher costs, more red tape, and less access to international markets. The UK’s reputation as a stable, attractive destination for global investment has been tarnished, with many firms opting to expand elsewhere1810.

The Broader European and Global Impact

A Blow to European Integration

Brexit has dealt a blow to the European project. It has emboldened nationalist and euroskeptic forces across the continent, raising the specter of further disintegration35. Yet, paradoxically, the EU has responded by pulling closer together, determined to avoid a repeat of the UK’s experience5.

Loss of a Liberal Voice

The UK’s exit has deprived the EU of a key liberal, pro-market voice, altering the balance of power within the bloc and reducing its influence on global issues such as trade, security, and climate change5. For allies such as Canada, the UK’s departure is a loss of a close partner within the EU5.

Conclusion: A Self-Inflicted Wound

Brexit was sold as a means to “take back control,” but the reality has been a loss of control—over the economy, over borders, and over Britain’s place in the world. The evidence is clear: Brexit has made the UK poorer, more divided, and less influential. The economic damage is deep and enduring, with millions of jobs lost, incomes reduced, and the cost of living rising. Socially, Brexit has widened inequalities and eroded rights. Politically, it has fractured the union and diminished Britain’s standing on the global stage.

Far from delivering the promised benefits, Brexit has proven to be a total disaster—a cautionary tale of how political slogans, when unmoored from economic and social realities, can lead a nation into decline125678101112.