The emergence of Reform UK as a significant force in British politics is not merely the result of one charismatic leader or a single-issue campaign. Rather, it is the product of a decade-long political realignment, shaped by the actions, missteps, and strategic choices of both the Conservative and Labour parties. This essay explores how the policies, leadership decisions, and broader societal trends fostered by these two dominant parties created fertile ground for the rise of Reform UK.
The Roots: From UKIP to the Brexit Party
The UK Independence Party (UKIP):
The story of Reform UK begins with UKIP, founded in the 1990s as a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist party. Nigel Farage, a key figure in UKIP, led the party through its most influential years, capitalizing on public discontent with the European Union and mass immigration. UKIP’s growing popularity, particularly in the early 2010s, exerted pressure on the Conservative Party to address the EU question more directly35.
Brexit Referendum Pressure:
The Conservative Party, under David Cameron, responded to UKIP’s rise by promising an in-out referendum on EU membership-a pledge designed to neutralize UKIP’s threat and reclaim right-leaning voters. The 2016 referendum, which resulted in a vote to leave the EU, was a direct consequence of UKIP’s influence and the Conservatives’ attempt to manage internal and external pressures36.
The Brexit Party:
After the referendum, UKIP descended into infighting and lost its political momentum. Farage, dissatisfied with the pace and direction of Brexit negotiations under both Conservative and Labour leadership, founded the Brexit Party in 2018. The new party advocated for a no-deal Brexit and quickly attracted disillusioned voters from both major parties, especially those frustrated by perceived parliamentary dithering over Brexit235.
The Transition: From Brexit Party to Reform UK
Rebranding and Broadening the Agenda:
With Brexit formally completed in January 2020, the Brexit Party’s raison d’être diminished. Recognizing the need for a broader platform, Farage and Richard Tice rebranded the party as Reform UK in 2021. This new incarnation shifted focus to opposing COVID-19 lockdowns, advocating for lower immigration, reforming the BBC and House of Lords, and calling for changes to the electoral system359.
Entrepreneurial Structure:
Unusually, Reform UK was established as a limited company, with Farage as majority shareholder and Tice as chairman, reflecting its “entrepreneurial political start-up” ethos. This allowed for centralized control and rapid response to shifting political winds, further distinguishing it from traditional party structures2.
Conservative Party: The Architect of Its Own Challenger
Brexit Management and Internal Divisions:
The Conservative Party’s handling of Brexit-first under Theresa May, then Boris Johnson, and finally Rishi Sunak-left many voters dissatisfied. The perception that the Conservatives failed to deliver a “true” Brexit, coupled with divisions over immigration and economic policy, alienated core supporters. These voters, skeptical of the party’s commitment to their priorities, became fertile ground for Reform UK’s message367.
Immigration and Populist Issues:
Despite tough rhetoric, the Conservatives struggled to control immigration numbers and address concerns about national identity and sovereignty. Reform UK seized on these issues, positioning itself as the uncompromising alternative for voters who felt betrayed by Conservative pragmatism or inconsistency126.
Defections and Local Realignment:
A significant number of Reform UK’s local councillors and even MPs were former Conservatives. The defection of high-profile figures like Lee Anderson, who became Reform’s first MP, symbolized the party’s appeal to disaffected Tory politicians and voters alike135.
Electoral Impact:
By the 2024 general election, Reform UK had become the third-largest party by vote share, winning five parliamentary seats and finishing ahead of the Conservatives in many constituencies. Nearly 80% of Reform voters in 2024 had supported the Conservatives in 2019, illustrating the scale of the exodus67.
Labour Party: An Indirect Catalyst
Brexit Ambiguity:
Labour’s equivocal stance on Brexit during the Corbyn and early Starmer years alienated both its traditional working-class base and pro-Remain urban voters. In many former Labour strongholds-especially in the North and Midlands-voters felt ignored or patronized, creating space for populist challengers68.
Immigration and Cultural Issues:
Labour’s progressive stance on immigration and social issues, while appealing to metropolitan voters, further distanced it from segments of its base who were concerned about economic insecurity and cultural change. Reform UK, echoing UKIP’s earlier strategy, targeted these “left behind” voters with promises of tougher immigration controls and national renewal68.
Electoral Erosion:
Reform UK’s rise was not only at the expense of the Conservatives. In local elections and specific constituencies, Labour also lost votes and seats to Reform, particularly in areas that had previously backed Brexit and felt neglected by both main parties8.
The Broader Context: Populism, Disillusionment, and Realignment
Populist Realignment:
The rise of Reform UK is part of a broader trend of populist realignment in Western democracies, fueled by economic insecurity, cultural anxiety, and distrust of political elites. Both the Conservative and Labour parties, through their policy choices and perceived failures, contributed to a sense of disillusionment that Reform UK has skillfully exploited678.
Voter Demographics:
Reform UK’s support base closely mirrors that of UKIP in 2015: predominantly white, older, less urban, and less likely to have a university degree. However, Reform voters are slightly more affluent and more likely to have previously supported the Conservatives, underscoring the party’s appeal to the traditional right6.
Conclusion: Creation by Neglect and Reaction
Reform UK did not arise in a vacuum. Its creation and rapid ascent are the direct result of strategic missteps, policy failures, and cultural misreadings by both the Conservative and Labour parties. The Conservatives, by failing to deliver on their Brexit and immigration promises and by alienating their base through internal divisions and inconsistent leadership, drove many of their supporters into the arms of Reform UK. Labour, by neglecting its traditional base and appearing out of touch with working-class concerns, indirectly enabled the rise of a populist challenger willing to address those anxieties head-on.
The story of Reform UK is thus the story of how Britain’s two main parties, through a combination of action and inaction, created the conditions for their own challenger. Whether Reform UK’s rise marks a permanent realignment or a temporary protest remains to be seen, but its creation is undeniably a product of Conservative and Labour choices over the past decade3678.
Key Timeline
Year | Event | Party Involvement |
---|---|---|
1990s | UKIP founded | Disillusionment with both parties |
2014-2016 | UKIP surges, Brexit referendum promised | Conservative response to UKIP pressure |
2018 | Brexit Party founded by Farage | Reaction to Brexit deadlock under both parties |
2019 | Brexit Party wins European elections | Failure of both parties to resolve Brexit |
2021 | Brexit Party becomes Reform UK | Broadening agenda post-Brexit |
2024 | Reform UK wins 5 seats, 14.3% vote share | Massive Conservative losses, Labour erosion in heartlands |
References to Core Arguments
-
Reform UK’s origins in UKIP and the Brexit Party, and its rebranding in response to the changing political landscape235.
-
The Conservative Party’s role in enabling Reform UK through policy failures and defections1367.
-
Labour’s indirect contribution via neglect of its traditional base and ambiguous Brexit stance68.
-
The demographic and electoral shifts that underpin Reform UK’s support68.
Reform UK’s rise is thus a testament to the consequences of political neglect, strategic miscalculation, and the enduring appeal of populist alternatives in times of uncertainty. Both the Conservative and Labour parties, through their actions and inactions, can be said to have created the very force that now threatens their dominance.
By Randall Hugh Hart
References:
- https://news.sky.com/story/who-is-the-reform-party-where-did-they-come-from-and-what-are-their-policies-13056985
- https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-richard-tice-lee-anderson-tories-rishi-sunak-b1164422.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK
- https://fullfact.org/politics/reform-farage-opposition/
- https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK
- https://politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-2024-general-election-and-the-rise-of-reform-uk-2/
- https://www.electionanalysis.uk/uk-election-analysis-2024/section-4-parties-and-the-campaign/election-2024-and-rise-of-reform-uk-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-conservatives/
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg467m8mjo
- https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/what-is-reform-uk-byelection-win-nigel-farage-b1044511.html
- https://consoc.org.uk/how-to-constitute-a-political-party/
- https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11694875
- https://www.britannica.com/topic/Brexit-Party
- https://x.com/reformparty_uk?lang=en
- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/04/reform-uk-party-richard-tice-history-brexit-tories/
- https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49887-what-do-reform-uk-voters-believe
- https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-reform-snatch-labour-safe-seat-after-knife-edge-vote-runcorn-by-election/
- https://theweek.com/news/uk-news/954310/what-does-reform-uk-stand-for
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6j8e38p79o
- https://news.sky.com/story/reform-has-put-the-two-traditional-parties-on-notice-and-we-dont-know-where-this-ends-13359642
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zt4hvcw/revision/2
- https://www.politico.eu/article/ben-houchen-conservatives-reform-uk-coming-together-fight-left-labour/
- https://labour.org.uk/change/serving-the-country/
- https://www.reformparty.uk
- https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52090-how-do-conservative-and-reform-uk-voters-feel-about-a-possible-merger-of-the-two-parties
- https://sites.google.com/site/thepoliticsteacherorg/home/the-organisation-and-structure-of-uk-parties
- https://pure.port.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/98514305/The_2024_General_Election_and_the_rise_of_Reform_UK.pdf
- https://www.britannica.com/topic/Reform-UK
- https://www.survation.com/what-is-the-effect-of-reform-uks-rise-in-the-north-and-midlands/
- https://www.prosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WHOS-VOTING-REFORM-25.03.24.pdf
- https://www.electionanalysis.uk/uk-election-analysis-2024/section-4-parties-and-the-campaign/election-2024-and-rise-of-reform-uk-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-conservatives/
- https://electoral-reform.org.uk/the-end-of-the-two-party-system-what-the-experts-are-saying-about-the-2025-local-elections/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK
- https://eustochos.com/the-full-history-of-reform-uk/
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg467m8mjo
- https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party
- https://fullfact.org/politics/reform-farage-opposition/
- https://ukandeu.ac.uk/bad-news-for-labour-and-its-attacks-on-reforms-policies-theyre-unlikely-to-work/